New Orleans, La.- Although forecasters have made significant strides in recent years predicting the path's of tropical storms and hurricanes, Debby continues to perplex the experts and the models.
The National Hurricane Center's official Tropical Storm Winds Advisory reflects that, with a footprint covering nearly the entire Gulf coast.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (one minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 39 mph, which is tropical storm force.
The Hurricane Center web site explains its graphics are "based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years."
Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map.
The time periods extend through the five day forecaster period with 12-hour intervals.
Forecasters note winds speed probabilities "that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property."
National Hurricane Center
