The National Hurricane Center extended the Hurricane Watch farther to the west and now includes Metropolitan New Orleans.
Here is the 10a.m. Central discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
Visible satellite and imagery suggest that the tropical cyclone is
gradually becoming better organized. There are indications of
inner core development with increased convection near and over the
center...and a partial eyewall is in evidence on radar imagery. The
banding features have become more distinct over the northern and
eastern semicircles of the circulation. The current intensity
estimate is held at 55 kt pending observations from an Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft that should be in the center shortly.
Isaac continues to exhibit a well-defined upper-level outflow
pattern...and gradual strengthening is likely as the cyclone
traverses the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days.
The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous NHC
forecast and is also close to the latest statistical-dynamical
guidance.
The track forecast beyond day 2 has become problematic. Dynamical
models depict the cyclone moving into a break in the subtropical
ridge north of the Gulf Coast in about 72 hours. However there is
a large spread among the more reliable track models. For example...
the ECMWF forecast is about 300 N mi east of the GFS solution at day
Since the dynamical model consensus has shifted westward...the
official track forecast is moved a bit to the west of the previous
one. This requires an extension of the Hurricane Watch westward
along the Louisiana coast. It should be noted that there is
greater than usual uncertainty in the track forecast.
Throughout the period...it is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track since significant hazards extend well away from the
center.
