A tropical wave, currently dropping heavy amounts of rainfall along the Florida panhandle and other parts of the Southeastern U.S., is being held east of Louisiana due to an upper trough.
That trough will begin to retreat toward the north, and that means the plume of tropical moisture will arrive over Southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi coast this weekend.
A wave in the Gulf this time of year will need to be watched closely for any potential development, however, forecast models for the past few days have not strengthened the surface feature into anything other than a rain-maker for the region.
Currently, strong wind shear over the west Gulf of Mexico is in place thanks to the upper trough. But as the upper trough lifts to the north, wind shear will subside. An upper high building over Texas will reintroduce shearing winds over the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of any development, rainfall amounts may lead to some minor flooding this the weekend.