Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is slowly becoming better organized. Additional development is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea.
After that time, land interaction could limit development potential over the weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low Thursday afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium, at 50 percent. Formation chance through the next five days is high, at 70 percent.
Locally, Wednesday saw some very active thunderstorms across the south shore with coverage at about 40 to 50 percent. The north shore saw little shower activity, so the hotter temperatures were north of Lake Pontchartrain.
Today's rain trigger was daytime heating coupled with land sea breeze fronts.
On Thursday, expect less shower coverage as an upper ridge is predicted to build on us. That should allow temperatures to reach the mid- to upper-90s for the next two to three days before rain chances increase by Sunday.