It wasn't a perfect day, but Sunday was rather nice with slightly warmer-than-expected high temperatures with highs in the middle 60's. It was a bit overcast with only filtered sun. Heading into the overnight we do expect more moisture moving in as an upper low to the west continues to push moisture up and over the shallow layer of cool air settled over the area. A shortwave of energy rotating through the base of a deep upper trough is developing a surface low in northwest Texas. This low is the major focus of our forecast.
Lundi Gras appears to start out ok with only a few showers early in the day and a passing coastal thunderstorm as the area will stay in the warm section of the surface low through most of the day. As this low tracks east the cold air will get pushed south behind it. A line of storms will develop ahead of it and should drop some rain over the north shore early in the day. Our major question is timing. Models flipped flopped and disagreed over the last several days. Today, two consecutive model runs are holding the showers off the south shore until after 10:00 p.m. and moving the rain out before sunrise on Mardi Gras leaving behind windy and cold, but at least drier weather.
- Nicondra Norwood?
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