Tropical Storm Danny forms in the Atlantic, moves toward Caribbean

Tropical Storm Danny forms in the Atlantic, moves toward Caribbean

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - Tropical Storm Danny has formed in the Atlantic, and forecasters are expecting it to gradually strengthen.

The storm is located several hundred miles west-southwest if the Cape Verde Islands.

If the system holds together, it is a week or more out from the Islands and there is no reason to start tracking now, according to FOX 8 Meteorologist Nicondra Norwood.

Dry air and shear could rip the system apart before even reaching the Caribbean. There are too many unknowns and it's too far away to concern ourselves now.

The following is from Weather Underground:

The initial motion estimate remains 280/11 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The global and regional models remain in good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge located along 45W longitude for the next 72 hours. After that time, however, there is some spread in the model guidance based on how much and how soon the ridge builds back in to the north of Danny.

The UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the cyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF model strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward and considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours. The GFS poorly initialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than all of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given much less weight on this forecast cycle. The official forecast track is faster than the consensus model TVCN due to the much slower GFS model inducing a significant slow bias in the model consensus, and is roughly a blend of the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS-Ensemble mean forecast solutions.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions surrounding Danny are expected to be favorable for slow but steady strengthening throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor appears to be dry Mid-level air located to the north and west of Danny occasionally getting entrained into the circulation. However, the low vertical wind shear regime that Danny will be migrating through should allow the convective structure of the cyclone to steadily increase in organization, which should enable the circulation to quickly mix out any dry air intrusions. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the intensity consensus model IVCN through 96 hours, and near the LGEM intensity model at 120 hours.

Copyright 2015 WVUE via National Hurricane Center/NOAA. All rights reserved.