(WVUE) - Happy Father's Day Weekend! Most of the day turned out fine with dry conditions and some sunshine early, but by late afternoon a few strong storms began bubbling across the area. Stormy activity will continue through the early evening hours with a break for overnight.
Monday during the day we should see drier conditions then we will have to monitor the system to our south for the rest of the week. Much of the extended forecast will depend on the eventual development and track of the disturbance over the Caribbean we've been telling you about.
Hurricane hunters were originally scheduled to investigate Sunday, but as satellite did not show much change and the National Hurricane Center decided to cancel the flights. New missions are scheduled for Monday if warranted.
Currently what is known is that satellite shows a broad area of circulation near the eastern end of the Yucatan Peninsula still over the Caribbean. The most active thunderstorm activity is away from the center with a cluster to the northeast and a cluster to the southeast. That circulation is expected to drift north to northwest into the Gulf of Mexico overnight.
You may be seeing model runs on Invest 93L, but it is important to note that until a well defined center of circulation is identified and pinpointed to use as a starting point computer models can not give good info. Like any calculation garbage in equals garbage out. Satellite analysis shows strong sheer continuing over the Gulf of Mexico which would diminish the chances for a strong storm. As the upper low in the Gulf gets pulled east by a trough it is possible the moisture and whatever develops would follow that path. Another scenario misses the influence of the trough and allows a storm to develop south continuing northwest into Mexico or extreme south Texas. There's also a possibility the center and thunderstorms never come together. It is too early to determine any indirect or direct threats to our area, but better rain chances are expected regardless of how much this system develops and where the circulation eventually ends up. The National Hurricane Center is giving it an 90 percent chance for development over the next five days.
A second disturbance much farther out in the Atlantic is given a 60 percent chance for development. This cluster of storms is still east of the Islands. It will continue to move northeast over the next several days. Hurricane Hunters are also scheduled to investigate on Monday if needed.
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