Two spots show high chance for tropical development - FOX 8 WVUE New Orleans News, Weather, Sports, Social

Two spots show high chance for tropical development

(Source: National Hurricane Center) (Source: National Hurricane Center)
(WVUE) -

Monday will see around a 40 percent chance of rain with the most of that happening rain south of Lake Pontchartrain.

Much of the extended forecast will depend on the eventual development and track of the disturbance moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are watching two tropical systems in the Atlantic basin that have a potential to become tropical storms in the next couple of days.

Advisories have been issued for what it calls Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, about 485 miles east-southeast of Trinidad, moving to the west at 23 mph. Sustained winds have reached 40 mph.

Both areas of disturbance have a high chance of tropical development.

For now, a broad area of circulation near the eastern end of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing storm activity over the Caribbean. That circulation is expected to drift into the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday.

A broad area of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles east and northeast of the estimated center.

While the low still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, gradual development is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next five days.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next day or two.

While there are model runs on Invest 93L, until a well-defined center of circulation is identified and pinpointed, computer models are not reliable. 

Satellite analysis shows strong sheer continuing over the Gulf of Mexico which would diminish the chances for a strong storm.

As an upper-level trough moves east, it is possible the moisture associated with any development would interact and be pulled slightly east as well.

Another scenario is that it misses the influence of the trough, and continues drifting northwest.

The first scenario would decrease rain chances in the area while the second scenario would most likely bring more rain. 

The second disturbance continues moving rapidly toward the southern Windward Islands.

As of 8 a.m., the disturbance was located about 400 miles east-southeast of Trinidad and about 470 miles east-southeast of Grenada

The disturbance is moving west at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada.

A fast motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the

disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands tonight and early Tuesday.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, mainly northwest through northeast of the center.

For immediate updates, call the Delta World Tire Weather Phone at 504-500-2888.

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