New poll shows Lopinto with narrow lead in sheriff's race - FOX 8, WVUE,, weather, app, news, saints

New poll shows Lopinto with narrow lead in sheriff's race

Sheriff Joe Lopinto and John Fortunato (FOX 8) Sheriff Joe Lopinto and John Fortunato (FOX 8)

A new poll commissioned by a New Orleans businessman shows interim Jefferson Parish Sheriff Joseph Lopinto with a narrow lead over his opponent John Fortunato. 

JMC Analytics and Polling was commissioned to conduct the poll for Henry Shane and was independent from the candidates. 

The poll, which was conducted on March 10, randomly surveyed households in Jefferson Parish on two races, the sheriff's race and the constable race between Allen Leone and Jack Rizzuto. 

There were 880 responses to the four poll questions with 343 of those responses coming from the 5th Justice Court for the Constable’s race.

There were two take aways from the poll, according to JMC Analytics. 

In the Sheriff’s race, Lopinto has a narrow two-percent lead over Fortunato.

According to the poll, Lopinto has the lead regardless of whether or not undecided “leaners” are included. The poll also said Lopinto has leads across most racial and party demographic groups.

There are three demographic groups where results are substantially different.

According to the poll, women voters are noticeably more likely to prefer Lopinto over Fortunato, with a 14 point gender gap with leaners included.

Women favor Lopinto 48 percent and Fortunato 39 percent. Men favor Fortunato 46 percent to Lopinto's 41 percent

Candidate preferences also vary substantially depending on whether the respondent is from the Eastbank or the Westbank. 

With leaners included, Westbankers favor Fortunato 50 percent to Fortunato's 38 percent, while those in the Eastbank favor Lopinto 48 percent to Fortunato's 39 percent.

In the Constable’s special election race Allen Leone has a 10 point lead over Jack Rizzuto, according to the results of the poll. 

The poll's undecided percentage this late in the race is fairly substantial. 

Leone has leads across most groups, with his strongest support coming from Republicans. According to the poll, only white Independents favor Rizzuto. 

The margin of error, with a 95 percent confidence interval, was 3.3 percent and 5.3 percent for the 5th Justice Court. 

The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 79 percent white, 17 percent black. The party registration of those respondents was 43 percent Democratic to 42 percent Republican with 15 percent of those respondents being Independents. 

The geographic breakdown of the respondents:

  • 14 percent from Parish Council District 1,
  • 23 percent from Parish Council District 2,
  • 15 percent from Parish Council District 3,
  • 22 percent from Parish Council District 4,
  • 25 percent from Parish Council District 5

To view the complete poll, click here. 

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