The increasing clouds and wind signal the change coming in the forecast. Moisture levels are elevated with a southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico staying strong with the gradient between low pressure to our north and the high pressure that's been controlling our weather. As the high both at the surface and in the upper levels move on we will see an increase in rain during the day on Wednesday. The day will begin warm and muggy with clouds and some sunny breaks, but by afternoon widespread rain will be moving into the area.
The cold front to our north and west will be slow moving as it is parallel to the southwest flow in the steering winds. This creates a situation prime for heavy rainfall, but it appears the best dynamics for severe weather will be mostly north and west of our area. The Storm Prediction Center does place most of the area under a marginal risk through the day on Thursday with a slight risk to our northwest Wednesday and the North Shore parishes and Mississippi counties under a slight risk on Thursday. We can expect partly cloudy conditions to become mostly cloudy with showers and heavy down pours moving in by late Wednesday. Thursday some thunderstorms until the wind shift late in the day.
It still looks like the rain will move out and more comfortable temperatures with drier air will move in just in time for outdoor events on Good Friday and the Easter Weekend.
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