Watching Bay of Campeche for development

Low pressure could form next week

Watching Bay of Campeche for development
Low pressure could form (Source: weathermodels.com)

NEW ORLEANS, La. (WVUE) - You may have heard and if you haven’t there are model rumblings of a possible Gulf low later next week. Various model runs have ranged from a storm near Florida to one over Texas to no storm at all. This is expected from a system that doesn’t even exist.

There seems to be some coalescing in the past 24 hours or so around development more likely in the Bay of Campeche and/or Western Gulf of Mexico. So it’s prudent we start paying attention with at least one eye open (I’ll always have both!).

The European model puts the chances of a tropical depression in the far Bay of Campeche at near 90% by the end of the week. The chance for a tropical storm is around 30-40% which is pretty significant.

One of the big keys to any development much less a track will be the strength of hot high pressure over the Lower 48. As of a couple days ago, the European model kept the high really strong and farther east. That would trap any low in the Bay of Campeche and push it into Southern Mexico. So no storm for us. However recently it has backed away from the high being so strong.

So the key over the weekend will be to watch how strong that high is and how far east it builds.

There’s lots of time to watch these things but in this day in age it’s best for me to put this out there for you as there will be quite a few voices chipping in as usual as the weekend moves along.

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