The Extra Point Week 4: Early Trends to Beware Of
NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) -
While the first two weeks of the fantasy football season can bring some coincidences or seemingly one-time performances, if they repeat themselves a few times, it’s a trend. There are a few that I’m keeping an eye on as we enter Week 4.
Alvin Kamara or bust with the Saints
In the past, the Saints had several offensive players that you could count on for at-least enough fantasy football production to put in your starting lineup. Now, that’s down to just Kamara. The Saints have proven over the first three weeks that they’re going to win with defense and a conservative, turnover-free offense. That means Kamara will get his share of touches, but if you’re relying on Jameis Winston to put up starting QB numbers, don.t He’s yet to top 150 yards in the air. That also means his receiver and tight end targets don’t have much upside either.
The Saints defense is a must-start every week
On the other side of the ball, the Saints are better than ever. Regardless of opponent, their defense is playing so well that you have to keep them in your starting lineup. They’ve proven their ability to stack up takeaways, stuff the run and limit explosive plays. The Saints defense is ranks 6th in opponent yards per game, 3rd in opponent rush yards per game and 3rd in opponent points per game. They’re one of the best in the league in the categories that matter.
Be wary of the 49ers backfield
If Elijah Mitchell returns, my best guess is that he’ll be the lone back worth starting. But even then, Kyle Shanahan’s tendencies to use multiple backs, as well as give carries to WR Deebo Samuel and others, makes San Francisco tough to predict or count on for running back production. That’s despite their excellent scheme for ball carriers. The problem is volume. Without it, there’s not much value.
Same for Ravens running backs
This one’s even more puzzling. Baltimore’s turned to free agents to fill some holes in their backfield after injuries. But their most productive back is Ty’Son Williams. He averages 6.1 yards per carry compared to Latavius Murray’s 3.5 yards per carry. Williams has been on the field more, but he only has one more carry than Murray. I think that Williams is the better long-term play for this season, but I’m keeping him on my bench until there’s a clear sign that he’s the lead back.
In Derek Carr we trust
Carr has been a top-10 quarterback thanks to his high volume of pass attempts. It’s yielded a league-high 380 passing yards per game, and I honestly think the Raiders will continue to lean on him. He’s always had Darren Waller at tight end and Hunter Renfrow in the slot, but we’re also starting to see Carr utilize his weapons on the outside as well with Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards. I think Carr and his production are here to stay, especially in a division where big offense wins games.
As always, be sure to tune into the Fox 8 Live Tailgate on Sunday morning at 10 a.m. for the latest on injury statuses. You can also submit any fantasy football questions using the Final Word feature in the Final Play app.
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