By The Numbers: 2022 NFL Draft Edition

First Round Mock Draft by Probability
Ohio State receiver Chris Olave catches a touchdown pass during the first half of an NCAA...
Ohio State receiver Chris Olave catches a touchdown pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)(Associated Press)
Published: Apr. 25, 2022 at 6:30 PM CDT
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NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - It’s mock draft season and by now you’ll have seen hundreds of them as we enter draft week. This mock draft though relies on probabilities of simulated drafts and multiple different draft boards from several different websites and is just restricted to the first round.

The Saints have two picks in the first round, the 16th and the 19th. The last time they had two firsts was in 2017 when they selected Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk, two Pro Bowlers.

First we’ll discuss the two players most likely to be selected on Thursday:

Round 1, Pick 16: WR Chris Olave, Ohio State

  • Olave, according to the 30 simulated drafts, was selected 33% of the time by the Saints in the first round
  • The Saints selected a WR 63% of the time with either pick in the simulations
  • The Saints selected a WR 40% of the time with the 16th pick in the simulations
  • The next highest percentage for a WR was Alabama’s Jameson Williams who owned a 13%

Round 1, Pick 19: QB Kenny Pickett, Pitt

  • Pickett was selected 37% of the time by the Saints in the first round simulation
  • The Saints selected a QB 80% of the time with either pick in the first round simulation
  • The Saints selected a QB 30% of the time with the 19th pick in the first round simulation
  • The next highest percentage for a QB was Liberty’s Malik Willis who owned a 30%

Now lets look at other notable probabilities:

  • The Saints are also very likely to take an offensive lineman in the first round, selecting one in this simulation 36% of the time
  • Northern Iowa offensive tackle Trevor Penning was selected by the Saints 30% of the time in the simulation
  • The Saints selected a defensive player in only 12% of simulations
  • Only 23% of simulated first rounds had the Saints not taking a QB at all

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