Exclusive Poll: Trump holds strong lead over Clinton in Louisiana

Exclusive Poll: Trump holds strong lead over Clinton in Louisiana

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - An exclusive FOX 8/Raycom Media poll shows Donald Trump with a 20-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Louisiana with just two-and-a-half weeks until the presidential election.

But even though Trump is far ahead in the race for the White House here, the poll's results paint trouble for the Republican nominee.

The research firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Fla., conducted the survey from Oct. 17-19, asking 625 likely voters who they would support if the election were held today.

Statewide, voters polled gave Donald Trump a commanding lead of 54 percent to Hillary Clinton's 34 percent.

But in the New Orleans metro area, comprised of 12 parishes, both candidates get 42 percent support.

Break out the rest of the state, and Trump's lead widens to almost 30 points.

FOX 8 political analyst Mike Sherman said the statewide numbers are not surprising.

"So in the metro New Orleans area, I think we're seeing that party affiliation is the predictor of where people are in the presidential race - Democrats for Clinton and Republicans for Trump," Sherman said. "Probably no anomaly in our state. At the end of the day, we are solidly red, and not a state that's in play."

In fact, 88 percent of Republican voters polled say they are voting for Trump, but so are 32 percent of Democrats surveyed, as well as 50 percent of independent voters.

Fifty-seven percent of Democrats told pollsters they are voting for Clinton, but just three percent of Republicans said they plan to cross party lines. Clinton also gets the support of 29 percent of those registered as independents.

FOX 8 political analyst Mike Sherman said where it gets interesting is when you look at how men and women responded to the poll. Sixty-one percent of men surveyed said they'll vote for Trump. Twenty-nine percent of the men choose Clinton.

Among women voters, 47 percent said they will cast their ballot for Trump, and 39 percent of women said they'll vote for Clinton.

Trump overperforms when it comes to men and underperforms with women voters in Louisiana.

"So the women vote in Louisiana is a troubling sign for Donald Trump, who's facing problems with women voters nationally," Sherman said. "Trump is doing 14 points worse with women voters in Louisiana than men voters. If Donald Trump wants any chance of being elected, he has to find a way in the last three weeks to make amends with women voters."

According to this latest poll, Trump would get 75 percent of the white vote in the state if the election were held today.

Among black voters who responded to the survey, 89 percent plan to cast their vote for Clinton.

With 19 days until the election, only nine percent of voters statewide said they're undecided.

"I think it's the final three weeks, early voting starts next week," Sherman said. "People are making up their mind and they now have enough information."

The margin of error for the poll was less than four points.

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